Santander raises GEK TERNA price target to €62
Santander ranks GEK TERNA among its top three European picks, comparing it with Vinci, Ferrovial and Eiffage.
Santander raised its price target for GEK TERNA shares to €62 from €58, maintaining an 'Outperform' rating. In its report titled 'King of the Greek Motorway Market', the bank estimates that following the €659 million capital increase, the group's investment narrative is shifting into a phase of capital reinvestment. Under a positive scenario, the target price could reach €72.
The analysis is part of a sector study exceeding 200 pages covering European infrastructure, in which GEK TERNA is compared with groups such as Vinci, Ferrovial, ACS, Hochtief, Eiffage and Sacyr. The Greek company ranks among Santander's top three picks, while the Greek motorway market is described as a 'sweet spot', in contrast to France and North America where pressures and intensifying competition are recorded.
According to the bank, GEK TERNA holds the newest concession portfolio in Europe, with an average remaining duration of about 27 years and control of over 85% of traffic on its concessioned road networks. Santander projects the portfolio's value will peak at €3.5 billion in 2032 and forecasts proportional EBITDA from motorways rising from €353 million in 2025 to €667 million in 2030.
The bank also estimates total dividends from concessions of about €13.2 billion until their expiry and net cash position of about €0.4 billion at parent level in 2026, incorporating about €600 million of additional value from deployment of funds raised in the recent capital increase.
For the construction arm, Santander estimates that TERNA controls over 50% of the domestic civil engineering market, with a record backlog of €6.6 billion and an EBIT margin of 9.3% for 2025. Coverage of the stock was also recently initiated by Jefferies, UBS with a €55 target price, and National Securities with a €60 target.